CÁC ĐIỂM NHẤN CHÍNH THỊ TRƯỜNG PHIÊN NGÀY 3/4

CÁC ĐIỂM NHẤN CHÍNH THỊ TRƯỜNG

VN-Index hôm qua phản ứng nhanh với lo ngại rủi ro từ yếu tố bên ngoài, tuy nhiên dòng tiền lại hướng đến các nhóm cổ phiếu triển vọng như ngân hàng, chứng khoán, bất động sản và thanh khoản vẫn được duy trì nên chúng tôi cho rằng xu hướng lạc quan của thị trường vẫn chưa thay đổi. Chỉ số đang thử thách với ngưỡng cản 1200 điểm, vượt qua được thì xu hướng tăng ngắn hạn sẽ tiếp tục. TTCK Mỹ tăng điểm đêm qua và triển vọng KQKD Q1 khả năng sẽ hỗ trợ chỉ số vượt qua được ngưỡng cản này.

Theo ước tính, các công ty có triển vọng tăng trưởng lợi nhuận 1/2018 tích cực bao gồm 13 mã : ACB, GAS, GMD, HDB, HPG, MBB, MSN, QNS, VCB, VIB, VNM, VPB and VSC. Chiều ngược lại NKG và PVS sẽ có lợi nhuận sụt giảm. (chi tiết xem bên dưới)

Chứng khoán Mỹ phục hồi sau phiên bán tháo với mức tăng hơn 1%, trong khi chứng khoán Châu Âu phần lớn giảm nhẹ sau khi giao dịch trở lại sau kỳ nghỉ lễ Phục sinh. Mỹ đã công bố danh mục các mặt hàng chịu thuế lên tới 25% đánh vào hàng hóa nhập khẩu từ Trung Quốc, chủ yếu là các mặt hàng công nghệ cao, tổng giá trị lên tới 50 tỷ USD

Giá dầu phục hồi nhẹ sau phiên giảm 3%, tuy nhiên đà tăng bị hạn chế do nguồn cung dầu thô Mỹ vẫn được dự báo sẽ tăng.

Quỹ VFM VN30 có động thái tích cực khi lần đầu tiên quỹ được tăng vốn trong phiên 2/4 sau 2 tuần bị rút vốn liên tiếp. Tổng số lượng ccq tăng thêm 1.4tr ccq, tương đương 26.8 tỷ đồng

Quỹ VanEck cũng tiếp tục tăng thêm 50.000 ccq, tương đương 22.3 tỷ đồng. Lượng tiền vào tuy không lớn nhưng đều đặn cho thấy xu hướng dòng tiền vẫn khá tích cực.

ETF

Tổng tài sản

(tỷ VND)

Số CCQ

lưu hành (triệu)

Premium/ Discount

Thay đổi số lượng CCQ

phiên gần nhất

Giá trị dòng vốn

(tỷ VND)

Ngày thực hiện

VFM VN30

       4,924.99

257

-0.331

1,400,000

26.83

4/2/2018

VanEck

     10,270.89

22.65

1.795

50,000

22.67

4/3/2018

DB FTSE

       8,212.66

9.364

0.085

0

0.00

3/29/2018

 

DỰ BÁO XU HƯỚNG THEO QUAN ĐIỂM KỸ THUẬT

VN-INDEX

VN-Index đã có phiên giao dịch giảm điểm khi chạm cận dưới vùng kháng cự 1200, thanh khoản ổn định hơn sau phiên tăng khối lượng giao dịch ngày hôm qua. Mốc 1170 sẽ là mức đánh giá sự yếu đi của VN-Index, nếu chỉ số giảm dưới mức này có khả năng thị trường sẽ yếu đi tạm thời. Nếu mức 1170 vẫn giữ được, VN-Index đang phản ứng với ngưỡng cản 1200, vượt qua được ngưỡng cản này xu hướng tăng ngắn hạn sẽ tiếp tục.

Hỗ trợ ngắn hạn:

1140

Kháng cự ngắn hạn:

1200-1210

 

Chỉ báo ngắn hạn

Chỉ báo xu hướng và trung hạn

Stochastic

TÍCH CỰC

RSI

TRUNG TÍNH

Volume

TÍCH CỰC

Bollinger Bands

TRUNG TÍNH

MA Ngắn hạn

TÍCH CỰC

MA Trung hạn

TÍCH CỰC

MFI

TÍCH CỰC

MACD

TRUNG TÍNH

TRENDER (Bloomberg)

TĂNG (Bắt đầu 21/2/2018)

 

Trend Trung hạn

TÍCH CỰC (NẮM GIỮ)

 

VN30-INDEX

VN30-Index có một phiên giảm điểm trở lại sau phiên tăng điểm mạnh tạo kỷ lục mới cho chỉ số này vào ngày hôm qua 2/4.  Khối lượng giao dịch tăng lên 12.74% so với phiên trước, nhưng vào phiên chỉ số giảm điểm khá mạnh. Mức  thấp nhất trong phiên giao dịch ở 1157 điểm sẽ trở thành mốc hỗ trợ quan trong cho  phiên giao dịch kế tiếp và nhiều khả năng chỉ số VN30 sẽ kiểm lại mức này.

Hỗ trợ ngắn hạn:

1145-1157

Kháng cự ngắn hạn:

1168-1179

 

Chỉ báo ngắn hạn

Chỉ báo xu hướng và trung hạn

Stochastic

TRUNG TÍNH

RSI

TRUNG TÍNH

Volume

TRUNG TÍNH

ADX

TRUNG TÍNH

MFI

TIÊU CỰC

 

MACD

TÍCH CỰC

MA Ngắn hạn

TÍCH CỰC

MA Trung hạn

TÍCH CỰC

Trend Ngắn hạn

TÍCH CỰC

 

Trend Trung hạn

TÍCH CỰC (NẮM GIỮ)

  

CẬP NHẬT BÁO CÁO VÀ KHUYẾN NGHỊ 

VNM (03/04/2018)  – Cập nhật ĐHCĐ 2018

Chúng tôi dự báo doanh thu năm 2018 sẽ đạt 57.405 tỷ đồng (+ 12,5% YoY) và lợi nhuận thuần đạt 11.515 tỷ đồng (tăng 12% YoY). Tuy nhiên, cần lưu ý rằng chúng tôi chưa bao gồm mảng mía đường trong ước tính tiềm năng về doanh thu và lợi nhuận của VNM trong năm 2018, mặc dù vậy doanh thu xuất khẩu trong quý 1/2018 thấp hơn ước tính là một rủi ro tiềm ẩn. Yếu tố giúp cổ phiếu tăng giá có thể là chi phí nguyên vật liệu thấp hơn ước tính. Chúng tôi duy trì khuyến nghị NẮM GIỮ.

Ở mức giá hiện tại là 199.700 đồng/cp, VNM đang giao dịch ở mức PE và EV/EBITDA 2018 là 28x và 18,2x. Giá mục tiêu 1 năm của chúng tôi đối với cổ phiếu VNM là 217.000 đồng/cp, dựa trên PE mục tiêu không đổi là 30x (cao hơn 14% so với các công ty trong khu vực) áp dụng cho ước tính EPS 2018 của chúng tôi.

AST (03/04/2018)  – Thăm công ty

AST có thể tiếp tục tăng trưởng trong vòng 2 năm tới thông qua mở rộng số lượng cửa hàng bán lẻ và một phần từ dịch vụ ăn uống. Sau năm 2019, tăng trưởng có thể đến từ các phân khúc khác như dịch vụ ăn uống và dịch vụ khách sạn. Theo quan điểm của chúng tôi, công ty có ban lãnh đạo đủ năng lực và năng động, liên tục tìm kiếm các cơ hội kinh doanh mới. Như vậy, chúng tôi nhận thấy AST có thể duy trì sự tăng trưởng trong dài hạn, với đội ngũ ban lãnh đạo như hiện tại.

Sau khuyến nghị MUA của chúng tôi, cổ phiếu đã tăng 77% lên 80.000 đồng / cổ phiếu. Nhờ điều kiện thị trường thuận lợi của ngành dịch vụ hàng không và triển vọng tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ của AST, chúng tôi nâng PE mục tiêu lên 20x và nâng giá mục tiêu 1 năm lên 96.500 đồng/cp (+ 20% so với giá hiện tại). Chúng tôi nhắc lại khuyến nghị MUA cổ phiếu. Chúng tôi áp dụng PE mục tiêu của AST cao hơn trung vị của các công ty dịch vụ sân bay trong khu vực là 19x do nhận thấy tiềm năng tăng trưởng cao của ngành dịch vụ sân bay Việt Nam so với các nước trong khu vực nhờ tăng trưởng du lịch mạnh mẽ.

Cẩn trọng hơn, chúng tôi cung cấp phân tích độ nhạy dưới đây dựa trên nhiều mức PE mục tiêu khác nhau để nhà đầu tư tham khảo:

Phân tích độ nhạy

PE

17,0

18,0

19,0

20,0

21,0

22,0

23,0

Giá mục tiêu (1 năm)

96.585

82.097

86.927

91.756

96.585

101.414

106.244

111.073

Nguồn: SSI Research

Yếu tố khiến cổ phiếu giảm giá có thể là rủi ro mất các cửa hàng hiện tại sang các công ty cùng ngành khác. Đây là rủi ro chính đối với AST tại thời điểm này. Một rủi ro khác là thất bại trong việc thực hiện các dự án khách sạn/căn hộ cao cấp mới khi thị trường bất động sản gặp khó khăn.

Báo cáo lợi nhuận (03/04/2018) – Ước tính lợi nhuận 1Q2018

Các công ty có triển vọng tăng trưởng lợi nhuận 1/2018 tích cực bao gồm: ACB, GAS, GMD, HDB, HPG, MBB, MSN, QNS, VCB, VIB, VNM, VPB and VSC. Chiều ngược lại NKG và PVS sẽ có lợi nhuận sụt giảm.

No.

Ticker

1Q18 Earnings Upside or Downside

Key Reason for the upside/downside

in 1Q18’s earnings

Recommendation for 1-year investment horizon

1-year TGP (VND)

Current price (VND)

% Upside/

(Downside)

1

ACB

Upside

LNTT Q1 tăng trưởng 94% nhờ giảm chi phí dự phòng

TĂNG TỶ TRỌNG

47,300

46,700

1.28%

2

GAS

Upside

LN Q1 tăng trưởng 10% nhờ giá MFO (giá dầu FO trung bình tháng tại Singapore) cao hơn

TRUNG LẬP

120,000

131,400

-8.68%

3

GMD

Upside

LN cốt lõi Q1 có thể tăng 10% nhờ lượng hàng hóa qua cảng tăng

TRUNG LẬP

35,000

30,750

13.82%

4

HDB

Upside

LNTT Q1 khoảng 1.000 tỷ đồng, cao gấp 2.6 so với cùng kỳ.

TRUNG LẬP

50,000

45,900

8.93%

5

HPG

Upside

BLĐ của HPG cho biết DT và LN ròng Q1 ước tính 12.000 tỷ đồng (+15%YoY) và 2.000 tỷ đồng (+3.4%).

TĂNG TỶ TRỌNG

73,400

60,400

21.52%

6

MBB

Upside

BLĐ kỳ vọng LNTT Q1 của MBB sẽ tăng trưởng 44% đạt 1.600 tỷ đồng

TĂNG TỶ TRỌNG

42,000

34,700

21.04%

7

MSN

Upside

Tăng trưởng LN của MSN trong Q1/2018 sẽ cao hơn 10% nhờ mảng Thực phẩm đồ uống, mảng khoáng sản và LN cao hơn từ TCB

TRUNG LẬP

N.a

113,500

N.a

8

QNS

Upside

Chúng tôi kỳ vọng LN của QNS sẽ tăng 10% trong Q1/2018 do mảng đường phục hồi nhờ sản lượng tăng trong khi giá mía giảm.

TĂNG TỶ TRỌNG

75,000

57,300

30.89%

9

VCB

Upside

Chúng tôi ước tính LNTT của VCB sẽ tăng 30% trong Q1/2018 nhờ tăng trưởng tín dụng bán lẻ, thu nhập từ phí và việc bán cổ phiếu HVN.

TRUNG LẬP

64,200

70,500

-8.94%

10

VIB

Upside

CT. HĐQT kỳ vọng LNtt của VIB trong Q1/2018 sẽ đạt hơn 500 tỷ đồng, cao gấp 3 cùng kỳ.

TRUNG LẬP

N.a

40,500

N.a

11

VNM

Upside

Chúng tôi ước tính tăng trưởng LN của VNM vào mức khiêm tốn

Do XK giảm và cơ sở so sánh cao cùng kỳ.

TRUNG LẬP

217,000

203,000

6.90%

12

VPB

Upside

Tăng trưởng LNTT của VPB được dự báo đạt 25% nhờ tăng trưởng tín dụng mạnh mẽ ở FE Credit.

N.a

N.a

64,500

N.a

13

VSC

Upside

6T2018 LN của VSC sẽ tăng trưởng 20% nhờ sản lượng tăng ở cảng VIP Green và nhờ khách hàng mới là Maersk Line. Ngoài ra, VSC còn không phải chịu phí cầu đường 7 tỷ đồng/tháng như trong năm 2017.

TRUNG LẬP

42,800

40,400

5.94%

14

NKG

Downside

LN ròng Q1/2018 của NKG được ước tính sẽ giảm khoảng 20% còn 120 tỷ đồng. Dù sản lượng tiêu thụ tăng 30% tuy nhiên LN gộp sẽ từ mức cao của cùng kỳ do giá thép cán nóng biến động.

TĂNG TỶ TRỌNG

38,700

31,700

22.08%

15

PVS

Downside

Chúng tôi ước tính LN Q1/2018 của PVS sẽ giảm đáng kể do thiếu đóng góp LN từ FPSO Lam Sơn và các dự án ngoài khơi.

GIẢM TỶ TRỌNG

N.a

21,100

N.a

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