Báo cáo nhận định thị trường phái sinh phiên giao dịch ngày 04/04

Báo cáo nhận định thị trường phái sinh phiên giao dịch ngày 04/04

 

Ngày đáo hạn

Số ngày tới hạn

KLGD (HĐ)

KL mở (OI)

Giá mở cửa

Giá cao nhất

Giá thấp nhất

Giá đóng cửa

+/-

Giá lý thuyết tham khảo

Chênh lệch

VN30

 

 

 

 

1,161.24

1,176.22

1,161.24

1,165.75

4.78

 

 

VN30F1804

4/19/2018

14

16,690

6,985

1,168.1

1,170.5

1,162.0

1,162.0

-0.6

1,166.1

4.1

VN30F1805

5/17/2018

42

260

500

1,175.4

1,177.2

1,170.6

1,172.0

2.5

1,166.9

-5.1

VN30F1806

6/21/2018

77

66

838

1,180.0

1,183.0

1,178.3

1,178.8

3.8

1,167.8

-11.0

VN30F1809

9/20/2018

168

53

671

1,194.9

1,198.6

1,194.0

1,195.7

4.7

1,170.3

-25.4

Tổng cộng

 

 

17,069

8,994

Tổng GTGD

1,992.3

(tỷ đồng)

 

 

 

 

 

NHẬN ĐỊNH THỊ TRƯỜNG

TTPS thận trọng trong ngắn hạn

Các TTCK Châu Á hôm nay đóng cửa tăng giảm đan xen dù TTCK Mỹ đã hồi phục đêm qua. Riêng tại TTCK VN, các chỉ số tăng mạnh từ đầu phiên nhưng sau đó thu hẹp dần đà tăng. Cụ thể, VN-Index có lúc vượt được ngưỡng cản 1.200 điểm lên 1.200,71 điểm (+12,42 điểm) tuy nhiên đóng cửa chỉ tăng 3.25 điểm (+0.27%). Tương tự, VN30-Index đóng cửa tại 1.165,75 điểm (+0.41%) sau khi tăng lên 1.176,22 điểm trong phiên sáng.VIC và VNM là 2 trụ cột chính giúp 2 chỉ số VN-Index và VN30-Index giữ được sắc xanh suốt phiên. Trong khi đó, 17 cổ phiếu trong nhóm VN30 đóng cửa giảm điểm dưới áp lực bán gia tăng mạnh. Thanh khoản trên HOSE tăng 7.2% so với hôm qua. Tỷ trọng giao dịch của NĐTNN cũng tăng lên 19.7% từ 19.3% và nhóm này mua ròng 143 tỷ đồng hỗ trợ thị trường.

Giá các HĐTL cũng có diễn biến tương tự và thu hẹp đà tăng vào cuối phiên, riêng F1804 đóng cửa giảm nhẹ 0,6 điểm. Theo đó, giá HĐ F1804 giảm xuống thấp hơn chỉ số cơ sở 3,75 điểm. Các HĐ còn lại cũng có mức tăng thấp hơn VN30 và tăng ít hơn trong ngắn hạn. Điều này cho thấy NĐT khá thận trọng trong ngắn hạn do áp lực bán gia tăng khi chỉ số quay lại đỉnh cao cũ.

KLGD tăng nhẹ đạt 17.069 HĐ, trong đó chỉ tăng ở HĐ F1804 và khối lượng mở giảm nhẹ còn 8.994 HĐ.

 

DỰ BÁO XU HƯỚNG VN30-INDEX

CHỈ BÁO NGẮN HẠN

CHỈ BÁO XU HƯỚNG VÀ TRUNG HẠN

Stochastic

TRUNG TÍNH

RSI

TRUNG TÍNH

Volume

TRUNG TÍNH

ADX

TRUNG TÍNH

MFI

TRUNG TÍNH

MACD

TÍCH CỰC

MA Ngắn hạn

TÍCH CỰC

MA Trung hạn

TÍCH CỰC

Trend Ngắn hạn

TÍCH CỰC

Trend Trung hạn

TÍCH CỰC (NẮM GIỮ)

 

Hỗ trợ ngắn hạn:

1147-1157

Kháng cự ngắn hạn:

1171-1179

 

Chỉ số VN30 tăng điểm mạnh trong phiên lên sát 1177 điểm và áp lực bán gia tăng khiến đà tăng bị thu hẹp. KLGD giảm 18.23% so với phiên trước và dải Bollinger Bands tiếp tục mở rộng. Mốc hỗ trợ ngắn hạn ngày ở mức 1157 điểm vẫn được giữ vững, tuy vậy áp lực bán vẫn có thể tiếp tục tăng ở vùng giá cao trong phiên ngày mai 5/4.

CHIẾN LƯỢC ĐẦU TƯ

HĐTL F1804 đóng cửa chênh thấp hơn giá lý thuyết khoảng 4.1 điểm, là lợi thế cho các vị thế mua mới trong phiên nếu chỉ số VN30 tiếp tục tăng điểm.

 

Vị thế MUA ngắn hạn                              

Vị thế Mua: VN30 tiếp tục vận động trên mốc 1157 điểm

Đóng vị thế: Quanh 1171 – 1179 điểm hoặc đạt mức lợi nhuận kỳ vọng

Stoploss: VN30 bẻ gãy trở lại mốc 1157 điểm

 

Vị thế BÁN ngắn hạn 

Vị thế bán: VN30  phá vỡ hỗ trợ 1157 điểm

Đóng vị thế: Quanh 1145-1147 điểm hoặc đạt mức lợi nhuận kỳ vọng

Stoploss: VN30 vận động trở lại lên trên 1157 điểm

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