Nhận Định Thị Trường Phiên Ngày 6/4

VN-Index vẫn đang trong quá trình kiểm định ngưỡng 1200 điểm, xác suất cao chỉ số sẽ vượt qua được mốc này để tiếp tục xu hướng TĂNG khi lo ngại rủi ro từ thị trường thế giới thật sự lắng dịu và các công ty công bố BCTC chính thức.

Các TTCK thế giới tiếp tục tăng điểm khi lo ngại về chiến tranh thương mại dịu bớt với việc Washington đề nghị thương thảo với Trung Quốc về vấn đề thuế nhập khẩu. S&P 500 có phiên tăng điểm thứ ba liên tiếp, chỉ số Stoxx Europe 600 hướng tới mức tăng điểm lớn nhất trong vòng 2 tháng

Tuy nhiên thị trường tương lai của Mỹ quay đầu giảm mạnh trên 1% vào cuối phiên sau khi Tổng thống Trump đưa ra tuyên bố sẽ tiếp tục đánh thêm thuế vào mặt hàng nhập khẩu từ Trung Quốc có giá trị ước tính lên tới 100 tỷ USD.

Quỹ VFM VN30 tiếp tục bị thu hồi thêm 1.9 triệu ccq trong 2 phiên ngày 3-4/4, tương đương 36.3 tỷ đồng. Trong khi đó, các quỹ ETF khác chưa có động thái tăng vốn khiến dòng vốn ngoại vẫn khá yếu trong giai đoạn này.

ETFTổng tài sản

(tỷ VND)

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lưu hành (triệu)

Premium/ DiscountThay đổi số lượng

CCQ phiên gần nhất

Giá trị dòng vốn

(tỷ VND)

Ngày thực hiện
VFM VN30       4,837.38252.90.378-1,100,000-21.044/5/2018
VanEck     10,294.8022.651.65900.004/5/2018
DB FTSE       8,363.149.3640.35900.004/4/2018

CỔ PHIẾU

VIC tiếp tục là trụ cột chính giúp thị trường duy trì điểm số.  Với vị thế vốn hóa dẫn đầu và hệ sinh thái đang dần hoàn chỉnh, kỳ vọng giá cổ phiếu VIC sẽ được đánh giá lại và tiếp tục chuyển biến theo chiều hướng tăng  khi Vinhomes niêm yết tương tự câu chuyện VRE niêm yếm vào thời điểm quý 4/2017. Cần lưu ý, định giá P/E của VIC hiện khá cao nên rủi ro điều chỉnh sẽ rất lớn nếu thị trường có biến động không tích cực.

FPT, NT2 là 2 cổ phiếu xuất hiện tín hiệu mua ngắn hạn

NT2 là nhà máy phát điện tốt nhất trong danh sách các nhà máy phát điện của PV Power nhờ thời gian hoạt động lâu năm, giá điện theo hợp đồng mua bán điện (PPA) cao và tỷ suất cố tức tiền mặt hằng năm khá (ở mức khoảng 8,1% tính theo giá hiện tại). Giá cổ phiếu NT2 diễn biến kém khả quan với mức giảm 8.1% từ đầu năm do khẩu vị thị trường chọn cổ phiếu tăng trưởng mạnh.

Tuy vậy, cần lưu ý năm 2018, NT2 sẽ phục hồi trở lại sau khi hoàn thành đợt đại tu năm 2017 và ước tính tăng trưởng lợi nhuận sau thuế có thể đạt 15,9% yoy.  Chúng tôi đưa ra giá mục tiêu 1 năm cho NT2 là 37.500 đồng/cp, tương đương với P/E cốt lõi mục tiêu là 11 lần.

FPT đang sở hữu 47% tại CTCP Bán lẻ Kỹ thuật số FPT (FPT Retail) – là chủ sở hữu 2 chuỗi bán lẻ là FPT Shop và F.Studio với hơn 450 cửa hàng trên cả nước, đồng thời cũng đặt tham vọng lớn vào lĩnh vực mới là chuỗi của hàng dược phẩm Long Châu. Việc FPT Retail nộp hồ sơ đăng ký niêm yết cổ phiếu lên HOSE và dự kiến niêm yết trước ngày 30/4/2018 sẽ là động lực tăng giá cho FPT trong thời gian tới.

Giá cổ phiếu FPT từ đầu năm đến nay chưa có biến động đáng kể (chỉ tăng khoảng hơn 3%) và đang giao dịch tại P/E TTM 11.1 lần. Hiện chúng tôi đưa ra giá mục tiêu 1 năm cho FPT là 70.000 đồng/cổ phiếu.

DỰ BÁO XU HƯỚNG THEO QUAN ĐIỂM KỸ THUẬT

VN-INDEX

VN-Index tiếp tục có phiên giao dịch tăng điểm với cây nến ngày là nến giảm. Quá trình thử thách với ngưỡng kháng cự 1200 của VN-Index vẫn tiếp diễn. Mốc 1170 sẽ là mức đánh giá sự yếu đi của chỉ số, nếu giảm dưới mức này có khả năng thị trường đang yếu đi tạm thời. Nếu vượt qua được ngưỡng cản 1200 xu hướng tăng ngắn hạn sẽ tiếp tục.

Hỗ trợ ngắn hạn:

1140

Kháng cự ngắn hạn:

1200-1210

 

Chỉ báo ngắn hạnChỉ báo xu hướng và trung hạn
StochasticTRUNG TÍNHRSITRUNG TÍNH
Volume TRUNG TÍNHBollinger BandsTRUNG TÍNH
MA Ngắn hạnTÍCH CỰCMA Trung hạnTÍCH CỰC
MFITRUNG TÍNHMACDTRUNG TÍNH
TRENDER (Bloomberg)TĂNG (Bắt đầu 21/2/2018) Trend Trung hạnTÍCH CỰC (NẮM GIỮ)

 

VN30-INDEX

Chỉ số VN30 có thêm một phiên tăng điểm đầu phiên và thu hẹp dần đà tăng vào cuối phiên. Khối lượng giao dịch  giảm 16.3% so với phiên trước , thấp hơn so với khối lượng trung bình động 20 ngày. Chúng tôi nâng mức hỗ trợ ngắn hạn ngày lên 1159 điểm và xu hướng ngắn hạn trong phiên của VN30 vẫn là tăng ngoại trừ  giảm xuống dưới mức hỗ trợ  này.

Hỗ trợ ngắn hạn:

1153-1159

Kháng cự ngắn hạn:

1174-1179

 

Chỉ báo ngắn hạnChỉ báo xu hướng và trung hạn
StochasticTRUNG TÍNHRSITRUNG TÍNH
Volume TRUNG TÍNHADXTRUNG TÍNH
MFI TRUNG TÍNH MACD TÍCH CỰC
MA Ngắn hạnTÍCH CỰCMA Trung hạnTÍCH CỰC
Trend Ngắn hạnTÍCH CỰC Trend Trung hạnTÍCH CỰC (NẮM GIỮ)

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