C4G: Cập nhật chuyến thăm công ty

1. Quan điểm đầu tư

C4G là đơn vị có kinh nghiệm và năng lực hàng đầu trong lĩnh vực thi công các dự án cơ sở hạ tầng cũng như thực hiện vai trò chủ đầu tư tại các dự án BOT. Doanh nghiệp được kỳ vọng sẽ hưởng lợi về khối lượng việc làm gia tăng khi chính phủ đẩy mạnh giải ngân đầu tư công từ năm 2020. Bên cạnh đó, điểm đáng lưu ý đối với C4G còn đến từ tỷ suất cổ tức tiền mặt hấp dẫn và kế hoạch niêm yết cổ phiếu trên sàn giao dịch chứng khoán tập trung.

Hưởng lợi từ câu chuyện giải ngân đầu tư công. Mảng xây dựng của C4G sẽ nhận thêm khối lượng việc làm từ các dự án đang được gấp rút triển khai

Dự án sửa chữa đường băng của sân bay Tân Sơn Nhất và sân bay Nội Bài dự kiến khởi công vào tháng 7/2020 và hoàn thành vào năm 2022. Tổng mức đầu tư kế hoạch là 4,15 nghìn tỷ đồng. C4G được kỳ vọng là một trong các doanh nghiệp có tiềm năng nhận gói thầu này, tuy nhiên công ty có thể sẽ đối mặt với sự cạnh tranh từ một số các đơn vị khác, ví dụ như TCT Xây dựng công trình hàng không ACC,…

Đối với 8 dự án thành phần của Cao tốc Bắc – Nam phía Đông, Chính phủ đã kiến nghị điều chỉnh chủ trương đầu tư Dự án và đề xuất chuyển đổi 3 dự án thành phần (Mai Sơn – Quốc Lộ 45, Vĩnh Hảo – Phan Thiết, Phan Thiết – Dầu Giây) từ đầu tư theo hình thức đối tác công tư (PPP) sang hình thức đầu tư công; 5 dự án còn lại tiếp tục triển khai theo hình thức PPP. Quốc hội khóa XIV đã biểu quyết thông qua nội dung trên trong phiên họp bế mạc Kỳ họp thứ 9, diễn ra vào ngày 19/06/2020.

Trước khi có sự thay đổi về hình thức đầu tư, 8 dự án thành phần của cao tốc Bắc – Nam phía Đông đã tiến hành tìm kiếm nhà đầu tư sơ tuyển. Trong đó, liên danh của Cienco 4 đã trúng tuyển tại 7 dự án, dự án còn lại là Vĩnh Hảo – Phan Thiết không có nhà đầu tư sơ tuyển.

Việc chuyển 2 dự án Mai Sơn – Quốc Lộ 45 và Phan Thiết – Dầu Giây sang hình thức đầu tư công đồng nghĩa với kết quả lựa chọn nhà đầu tư sơ tuyển sẽ bị hủy. Tuy nhiên công tác tiến hành lựa chọn nhà thầu thực hiện dự án vẫn sẽ mở ra cơ hội đối với các doanh nghiệp có kinh nghiệm thi công các công trình hạ tầng như Cienco 4.

Theo C4G, doanh nghiệp tự tin đều sẽ hưởng lợi bất kể thực hiện vai trò nhà đầu tư của dự án PPP hay nhà thầu đối với dự án đầu tư công. Dự kiến, các dự án thành phần của cao tốc Bắc Nam phía Đông sẽ đóng góp vào KQKD của C4G kể từ năm 2021.

Tỷ suất cổ tức tiền mặt hấp dẫnĐầu tháng 6/2020, doanh nghiệp đã chi trả cổ tức tiền mặt lần 1 cho năm 2018 với tỷ lệ 8%. Nếu tính tại thời điểm trước ngày chốt quyền trả cổ tức tiền mặt nêu trên, tỷ suất cổ tức của C4G đạt 10%, hấp dẫn nếu so sánh với lợi suất tiền gửi ngân hàng.

Doanh nghiệp cũng vừa có tờ trình Đại hội cổ đông về phương án phân phối lợi nhuận cho năm 2019. Theo đó, C4G lên kế hoạch trả cổ tức với 2 phương án trong đó phương án 1: trả 9% bằng cổ phiếu và phương án 2: trả 6% bằng tiền mặt. Với giả định doanh nghiệp sẽ trả cổ tức bằng tiền mặt, tỷ suất cổ tức của C4G theo giá thị trường hiện tại đạt 8,7%.

Kế hoạch niêm yết. Theo tờ trình tại Đại hội cổ đông thường niên năm nay, Cienco 4 dự kiến niêm yết cổ phiếu tại HNX hoặc HOSE, sớm nhất trong năm 2020. Việc niêm yết tại các sàn tập trung tạo cơ hội cho công ty nâng cao uy tín, cải thiện khả năng huy động vốn đầu tư. Thanh khoản của cổ phiếu dự kiến cũng sẽ được cải thiện.

Với mức giá 6.900 đồng/cp, C4G hiện đang giao dịch tại mức trailing TTM P/E là 10 lần, cao hơn so với một số doanh nghiệp hoạt động trong lĩnh vực phát triển hạ tầng như CII (4,7 lần), LCG (4,93 lần). Dựa trên kế hoạch 2020 mà doanh nghiệp đặt ra, P/E forward của C4G là 3,4 lần

Rủi ro: (i) khả năng hoàn thành kế hoạch lợi nhuận năm của doanh nghiệp; (ii) tình trạng nợ vay. Tính đến hết Q1/2020, tỷ lệ nợ/vốn chủ của C4G là 3 lần.

2. Tổng quan doanh nghiệp

Cienco 4 là doanh nghiệp có truyền thống và năng lực hàng đầu trong lĩnh vực xây dựng và phát triển các dự án hạ tầng giao thông. Từ 02/12/2014, sau khi Bộ GT-VT thoái toàn bộ 100% vốn tại công ty, Cienco 4 chính thức hoạt động theo hình thức CTCP không có vốn nhà nước. Vốn điều lệ hiện tại của công ty là 1.000 tỷ đồng.

C4G hiện có các công ty con là CTCP Đầu tư Cienco4 Land, Công ty BOT Tuyến tránh Vinh, CTCP Green Tea Islands cùng 21 công ty liên doanh, liên kết.

Tính đến thời điểm hiện tại, cơ cấu sở hữu tại Cienco 4 gồm có: 4 cổ đông lớn chiếm 53,93%, ban lãnh đạo và những người liên quan (12,73%) cùng các cổ đông khác (33,34%). Trong đó, 4 cổ đông lớn bao gồm CTCP New Link (20,75%), CT TNHH Đầu tư Thượng Hải (14,13%), CTCP Xây dựng Dũng Hưng (10,9%), CTCP Chứng khoán VN Direct (8,15%).

3. Hoạt động kinh doanh

C4G đang hoạt động trong các mảng kinh doanh chính là (i) xây dựng hạ tầng giao thông, (ii) đầu tư các dự án hạ tầng giao thông, và (iii) hoạt động kinh doanh cho thuê văn phòng thương mại và khu nghỉ dưỡng.

a. Xây dựng hạ tầng giao thông. Cienco 4 hiện đang nắm giữ hầu hết các công nghệ thi công trình độ cao trong đó tiêu biểu là Công nghệ thi công hầm qua núi NATM (dự án cao tốc Đà Nẵng Quảng Ngãi), công nghệ thi công cầu dây văng (dự án cầu Phước Khánh), công nghệ thi công hầm metro, công nghệ thi công cầu cảng biển,..

Các hợp đồng xây dựng của C4G là hợp đồng có thể điều chỉnh theo diễn biến của giá nguyên vật liệu (thép, xi măng,…). Nguyên vật liệu chiếm 60-70% trong cơ cấu giá thành xây dựng của công ty

Năm 2019, mảng xây dựng chiếm 67% cơ cấu doanh thu và 33% tỷ trọng lợi nhuận gộp. Các dự án đóng góp chính cho doanh thu của C4G trong năm 2019 gồm có: Dự án Metro Bến Thành – Suối Tiên; đoạn Mai Dịch – Cổ Nhuế, thuộc Dự án đầu tư Xây dựng Cầu cạn đoạn Mai Dịch – Nam Thăng Long; nhà máy xử lý nước thải Yên Xá,…

b. Đầu tư các dự án công trình giao thông. C4G hiện đang quản lý các trạm thu phí tại 4 dự án (i) dự án tuyến tránh TP. Vinh và Nam cầu bến Thủy – tuyến tránh Hà Tĩnh; (ii) dự án Quốc Lộ 3 đoạn Yên Lệnh – Vực Vòng; (iii) dự án Nghi Sơn – Cầu Giát; (iv) dự án Thái Nguyên – Chợ Mới.

Năm 2019, mảng BOT chỉ đóng góp 13% cơ cấu doanh thu nhưng chiếm tới 52% tỷ trọng lợi nhuận gộp. Trong các trạm thu phí mà C4G đang vận hành, hiện chỉ có dự án Thái Nguyên – Chợ Mới chưa triển khai thu phí được toàn bộ. Cụ thể, công ty hiện đang thu phí tại tuyến đường QL3 mới từ ngày 25/01/2018 (trạm 1), còn trạm thu phí trên QL3 cũ (trạm 2) vừa mới nhận được chấp thuận từ UBND tỉnh Thái Nguyên và Bộ GTVT. C4G đang hoàn chỉnh một số thủ tục còn lại để sớm đưa trạm thu phí vào hoạt động.

Tổng doanh thu từ 2 trạm Thái Nguyên – Chợ Mới ước đạt 70-80 tỷ đồng/năm. Tuy nhiên, trong trường hợp chỉ có trạm 1 tiếp tục vận hành trong năm nay, tổng doanh thu chỉ đạt 10-18% quy mô kể trên, một phần do ảnh hưởng của Covid-19.

Các dự án BOT của C4G thông thường sẽ được điều chỉnh tăng giá sau định kỳ 3 năm, mức tăng là 18%. Tuy nhiên tới thời điểm 2020 dù đã đến hạn tăng phí nhưng Bộ GT-VT vẫn chưa phê duyệt chính sách, một phần nguyên nhân đến từ định hướng hạn chế tăng các loại thuế phí, ổn định kinh tế vĩ mô. Bộ GT-VT đang xem xét các phương án hỗ trợ các chủ đầu tư BOT.

Phương án 1, thực hiện tăng phí đối với các dự án BOT nhưng theo một khung thời gian thích hợp hơn

Phương án 2, không thực hiện tăng phí nhưng có cơ chế hỗ trợ các chủ đầu tư BOT, ví dụ: cơ cấu lại nợ vay ngân hàng,…

Phương án 3, nhà nước mua lại dự án BOT.

c. Hoạt động kinh doanh cho thuê văn phòng thương mại. C4G hiện đang quản lý một số dự án văn phòng cho thuê như Tòa nhà 29 – Quang Trung – TP Vinh, Tòa nhà công vụ tại Hà Nội, Tòa nhà Cienco 4 Tower (TP.HCM),… Lĩnh vực này chỉ đóng góp 1,6% doanh thu thuần và 7,65% lợi nhuận gộp của doanh nghiệp trong năm 2019.

4. Kết quả kinh doanh 2019

Doanh thu thuần (DTT) hợp nhất đạt 2,34 nghìn tỷ đồng (-25% YoY) trong khi LNST giảm -32,4% YoY về 92,2 tỷ đồng. C4G hoàn thành gần 37% kế hoạch lợi nhuận đặt ra cho năm 2019.

Đối với mảng xây dựng, DTT giảm mạnh 39% YoY về 1,52 nghìn tỷ đồng. Lợi nhuận gộp giảm hơn 50% trong bối cảnh biên lãi gộp giảm từ 9,83% (2018) về 7,93% (2019) Theo chia sẻ từ doanh nghiệp, năm 2019 C4G gặp khó khăn trong việc giải ngân nguồn vốn cho các dự án, bao gồm nguồn vốn trái phiếu, ngân sách trung ương, nguồn vốn đối ứng cho các dự án ODA (trong đó gói thầu J3 – Cao tốc Bến Lức – Long Thành do VEC làm Chủ đầu tư, liên danh cùng SMCC phải tạm dừng chưa bố trí vốn). Thêm vào đó, nhiều doanh nghiệp giảm giá thầu dẫn tới cạnh tranh khốc liệt trong hoạt động đấu thầu.

Đối với mảng BOT, doanh thu ổn định ở mức 306,4 tỷ đồng (+4%) trong khi LNG giảm nhẹ -1,87% YoY. Mảng BOT đối mặt với những khó khăn nhất định trong năm qua do thủ tục kéo dài tại dự án Cầu Hiếu 2 – Nghĩa Đàn (BT) trong khi đó Trạm 2 thuộc dự án Thái Nguyên – Chợ Mới (BOT) chậm triển khai thu phí dịch vụ, ảnh hưởng tới phương án tài chính của doanh nghiệp.

5. Kế hoạch kinh doanh 2020

Năm 2020, C4G đặt kế hoạch tổng doanh thu là 3,05 nghìn tỷ đồng trong khi LNST ước tăng mạnh 117% lên mức 200 tỷ đồng. Cần lưu ý rằng, trong quá khứ C4G thường đặt mục tiêu LNST hàng năm từ 200 tỷ đồng trở lên, tuy nhiên nếu quan sát trong 2 năm 2018 và 2019, doanh nghiệp đạt được mức lợi nhuận thực tế thấp hơn đáng kể so với kế hoạch.

Trong năm 2020, doanh thu từ mảng xây dựng của C4G dự kiến sẽ đến từ các dự án đã thi công trong những năm gần đây như Metro Bến Thành, Cầu cạn đoạn Mai Dịch – Cổ Nhuế, nhà máy xử lý nước thải Yên Xá, Cầu An Hòa (Tây Ninh) .. cùng với các dự án mới bắt đầu triển khai như Hầm nút chui giao thông Nguyễn Văn Linh – Nguyễn Hữu Thọ, Dự án cải tạo cụm nút giao thông Trần Thị Lý, Gói 9 cao tốc Cam Lộ – La Sơn.

Kế hoạch của C4G chưa tính toán đến các dự án mới từ kế hoạch đẩy mạnh giải ngân đầu tư công. Theo chia sẻ từ ban lãnh đạo, trong trường hợp có điều chỉnh về kế hoạch kinh doanh thì hoạt động này thường tiến hành vào quý 4 hàng năm.

Kết thúc Q1/2020, C4G ghi nhận doanh thu thuần (DTT) và lợi nhuận sau thuế (LNST) giảm lần lượt 55,8% YoY và 60% YoY, tương ứng về mức 239,9 tỷ đồng và 15,83 tỷ đồng. Hiện C4G mới hoàn thành 7,9% kế hoạch lợi nhuận năm.

Nguồn SSI, Chứng+

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