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Thị trường Mỹ tăng điểm trở lại trong tuần qua nhờ kỳ vọng đối với (i) các chính sách hỗ trợ kinh tế trước tác động của Covid-19, đi cùng với (ii) sự hồi phục của thị trường lao động. DJ và S&P 500 tăng tương ứng 3.24% và 4%, lần lượt lên ngưỡng 25,827.36 điểm và 3,130.01 điểm. NASDAQ Composite tăng điểm trong toàn bộ 4 phiên giao dịch, thiết lập mức đỉnh mới tại ngưỡng 10,207 điểm.
Trong buổi điều trần trước Ủy ban dịch vụ Tài chính của Hạ viện vào ngày 30/06, Bộ trưởng Tài chính Hoa Kỳ là Steven Mnuchin cho rằng kinh tế Hoa Kỳ đang có vị thế đủ mạnh, có cơ hội tốt để phục hồi; đồng thời kỳ vọng tình trạng của nền kinh tế sẽ cải thiện trong nửa cuối năm 2020. Trong khi đó, thống đốc FED Jerome Powell tiếp tục duy trì quan điểm thận trọng vốn có về nền kinh tế. Tuy nhiên, cả Steven Mnuchin và Jerome Powell đều đồng ý rằng các biện pháp của chính quyền liên bang tính đến thời điểm hiện tại đang mang lại thành công.
Giá dầu tăng giá trở lại nhờ kỳ vọng về sự khôi phục của các nền kinh tế cùng với số liệu tích cực từ thị trường Hoa Kỳ. Giá dầu Brent giao tháng 9 tăng mạnh 4.3% đạt 42.8 USD/thùng trong khi dầu WTI giao tháng 8 cải thiện 3.65% lên ngưỡng 40.3 USD/thùng.
II. ĐIỂM CHÚ Ý VĨ MÔ TRONG NƯỚC
Các ngân hàng thương mại (NHTM) đồng loạt giảm lãi suất tiền gửi. Lãi suất tiền gửi hiện ở mức 3.5-4.25% với kỳ hạn dưới 6 tháng, 4.4-6.7% với kỳ hạn 6 đến dưới 12 tháng, từ 5.5 – 7.5%/năm với kỳ hạn 12, 13 tháng. Vùng lãi suất này đã thấp hơn 0.75%-1%/năm ở kỳ hạn dưới 6 tháng và thấp hơn từ 1% – 2%/năm ở các kỳ hạn 6 tháng trở lên so với thời điểm cuối năm 2019. Bên cạnh sự tác động giảm của các lãi suất điều hành, lãi suất tiền gửi giảm mạnh chủ yếu là do đầu ra tín dụng yếu. Tăng trưởng tín dụng đến 29/6/2020 là 3.26% so với cuối 2019, dù có tăng tốc trong tháng 6 (tăng 1.28% so với tháng 5) nhưng vẫn ở mức rất thấp so với mức 7.36% của 6 tháng 2019. Tăng trưởng huy động cao hơn tín dụng khiến cho các NHTM dư thừa VND và điều chỉnh giảm lãi suất tiền gửi.
Thống kê một số doanh nghiệp niêm yết nằm trong danh sách thoái vốn dự kiến của SCIC trong năm 2020:
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Dòng tiền có xu hướng tìm kiếm cơ hội đầu tư tại nhóm cổ phiếu đầu tư giá trị/ lĩnh vực phòng thủ. Trong phiên cuối tuần, sắc xanh chiếm ưu thế tại các lĩnh vực như Điện, nước, Dược phẩm, Cảng biển, Phân bón, Dệt may, Hóa chất,…trong đó các mã mang lại mức sinh lời tốt cho nhà đầu tư có thể kể đến như HAH (+4%), STK (tăng trần), LIX (+4.9%),…Một số cổ phiếu khác có diễn biến ấn tượng có thể kể đến như VGC (phản ánh với thông tin Gelex chào mua công khai 95 triệu cổ phiếu Viglacera); DGW (câu chuyện hợp tác chiến lược với Apple) hay nhóm Viettel (Tập đoàn Viettel dự kiến hạ tỷ lệ sở hữu tại VTP, CTR, VTK về mức trên 50%).
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Vnindex phục hồi thanh khoản thấp, quan điểm vẫn được duy trì. Thị trường phục hồi loanh quanh vùng 850 điểm khả năng cao có 1 nhịp giảm tiếp mới thu hút được dòng tiền để lên tiếp. Chiến lược hiện tại: Duy trì tỷ trọng 20% – 40% cổ phiếu.
- Kịch bản 1: Vnindex về vùng 800 – 820 điểm, thị trường phục hồi mạnh mẽ, Mua 40% tiền. Tăng tỷ khi dòng tiền vào tích cực + Vnindex vượt 835 điểm. Mục tiêu hướng tới 940 điểm.
- Kịch bản 2: Vnindex về vùng 800 – 820, thị trường phục hồi thanh khoản thấp không vượt được 835 điểm, hỗ trợ 800 bị phá vỡ. Bán toàn bộ cổ phiếu
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