Quan điểm đầu tư
Trong năm 2020, chúng tôi cho rằng GVR có thể hoàn thành kế hoạch kinh doanh, trong đó lợi nhuận từ hoạt động khai thác cao su giảm 6% YoY, hoạt động cho thuê KCN vẫn giữ được tăng trưởng 36% YoY nhờ vào diện tích thuê mới tại KCN Rạch Bắp mở rộng sẽ đi vào hoạt động trong Q4/2020. Lợi nhuận từ đền bù đất sân bay Long Thành tại CTCP Cao su Đồng Nai (GVR sở hữu 100%), tiếp tục ghi nhận trong năm 2020 với 1.100 tỷ đồng (năm 2019 đã ghi nhận phần trả trước 40%). Đồng thời, lợi nhuận trước thuế của PHR (GVR sở hữu 66,62%) đạt 1.378 tỷ đồng (+127% YoY) nhờ vào tiền đền bù đất NTC. Các hoạt động thoái vốn dự kiến đem lại lợi nhuận trước thuế 900 tỷ đồng. EPS dự kiến đạt 1.007 đồng/CP (+6% YoY) tương đương P/E năm 2020 là 12,31x- bằng với mức trung bình ngành ở mức 12,7x.
Trong dài hạn, chúng tôi kỳ vọng vào việc chuyển đổi đất trồng cây cao su sang phát triển hạ tầng khu công nghiệp. Với đất trồng cao su chủ yếu ở Đồng Nai và Bình Dương – 2 trung tâm công nghiệp của phía Nam, là 1 lợi thế so với các doanh nghiệp phát triển KCN khác trong bối cảnh không còn nhiều quỹ đất để phát triển KCN, chi phí đền bù giải phóng mặt bằng cao và diện tích đền bù không liền thửa. Nếu theo kế hoạch phát triển và cho thuê mỗi năm 600-1.000 ha KCN trong giai đoạn 2020-2025 sẽ giúp GVR trở thành 1 trong những nhà phát triển công nghiệp lớn nhất khu vực miền Nam bên cạnh Becamex, Tín Nghĩa, Sonadezi, VSIP. Tỷ lệ nợ vay/VCSH đạt 0,23x – ít rủi ro vay nợ hơn so với Becamex (0,92x) và Idico (0,62x), bên cạnh lượng tiền mặt 7.114 tỷ đồng (chiếm 9% tổng tài sản).
Tổng quan hoạt động
Tập đoàn cao su Việt Nam (GVR) hiện đang quản lý 124.674 ha đất trồng cây cao su, phát triển khu công nghiệp từ Bắc – Nam. Trong giai đoạn 2020-2025, GVR thực hiện tái cơ cấu các hoạt động, đồng thời chuyển 1 phần diện tích trồng cây cao su 10.000 – 15.000 ha sang phát triển khu công nghiệp, đồng thời thoái vốn tại các lĩnh vực không phải hoạt động kinh doanh cốt lõi.
GVR hoạt động trên 4 lĩnh vực chính:
- Sản xuất và kinh doanh mủ cao su – chiếm 64% tổng doanh thu. Hiện tại công ty đang quản lý 410.000 ha cao su (Đông Nam Bộ 91.951 ha, Tây Nguyên 36.269 ha), trong đó trong nước 300.000 ha, 87.000 ha Campuchia, 30.000 ha ở Lào. Tổng công suất chế biến đạt 500.000 tấn/năm.
- Sản xuất và kinh doanh sản phẩm từ cao su như lốp xe VGR, nệm gối cao su, găng tay – chiếm 6% tổng doanh thu.
- Hoạt động chế biến gỗ bao gồm gỗ phôi, gỗ ghép tấm, gỗ MDF – chiếm 19% tổng doanh thu. Tổng công suất thiết kế đạt 1.127.180 m3/năm.
- Lĩnh vực phát triển khu công nghiệp – chiếm 5% tổng doanh thu. Hiện tại tập đoàn quản lý 16 KCN như Nam Tân Uyên, Tân Bình, Hố Nai, Long Khánh, Bắc Đồng Phú, Dầu Giây, Rạch Bắp, Thống Nhất, VRG Long Thành, Bình Long, Chí Linh… với tổng diện tích trên 6.566 ha.
Chúng tôi đã tham dự Đại hội Cổ đông 2020 của GVR và dưới đây là một số điểm chính đáng chú ý:
Kết quả kinh doanh 2019
Năm 2019, doanh thu thuần đạt 19.803 tỷ đồng (+0,5% YoY) và LNST cổ đông công ty mẹ đạt 3.833 tỷ đồng (+15% YoY). Trong đó hoat động sản xuất và kinh doanh mủ cao su, chế biến gỗ và phát triển khu công nghiệp là những hoạt động mang đến lợi nhuận chính cho tập đoàn.
Sản xuất và kinh doanh mủ cao su. Sản lượng khai thác toàn tập đoàn được 331.300 tấn mủ (+7,9% YoY), sản lượng tiêu thụ đạt 413.200 tấn cao su các loại (+4,6% YoY), giá bán trung bình đạt 32,3 triệu đồng/ tấn. Doanh thu thuần đạt 12.757 tỷ đồng (+4,9% YoY) – chiếm 64% tổng doanh thu. Lợi nhuận trước thuế đạt 1.006 tỷ đồng (+17% YoY) – chiếm 41,5% tổng lợi nhuận trước thuế.
Sản xuất và kinh doanh sản phẩm từ cao su. Doanh thu trong năm 2019 đạt 1.092 tỷ đồng (-24,8% YoY) và lợi nhuận sau thuế (LNST) đạt 10,2 tỷ đồng (+100% YoY).
Hoạt động chế biến gỗ. Sản lượng sản xuất trong năm 2019 là 1.302.353 m3 gỗ các loại (+1,2% YoY), sản lượng tiêu thụ đạt 1.091.438 m3. Doanh thu chế biến gỗ đạt 3.681 tỷ đồng (+6% YoY). Lợi nhuận trước thuế đạt 749 tỷ đồng (-5,2% YoY) – chiếm 29% tổng LNTT tập đoàn.
Hoạt động phát triển khu công nghiệp. Năm 2019, diện tích thuê không đạt kế hoạch do thủ tục đền bù và phê duyệt đầu tư chậm. Trong đó, NTC chưa hoàn thành nhận đất từ PHR tại KCN NTC3, KCN Rạch Bắp mở rộng chưa hoàn thành thủ tục. Doanh thu khu công nghiệp đạt 1.011 tỷ đồng (+66,8% YoY) và LNTT đạt 508 tỷ đồng (+65% YoY) – chiếm 20% tổng LNTT của tập đoàn.
Thực hiện thoái vốn ngoài ngành. Đến 31/12/2019, toàn tập đoàn dự kiến thực hiện thoái vốn tại các đơn vị ngoài ngành chính thu về 2.342 tỷ đồng, lợi nhuận trước thuế đạt 951 tỷ đồng.
Tình hình kinh doanh và kế hoạch năm 2020
Kế hoạch kinh doanh năm 2020 với doanh thu đạt 24.647 tỷ đồng (+7,7% YoY) và LNST đạt 4.029 tỷ đồng (+5,1% YoY). Trong đó, lợi nhuận trước thuế sản xuất cao su dự kiến đạt 1.000 tỷ đồng (-6% YoY), sản xuất và kinh doanh sản phẩm từ cao su không có lợi nhuận, Chế biến gỗ đạt 800 tỷ đồng (+7% YoY), Đền bù đất trên cây cao su cho dự án sân bay Long Thành là 1.100 tỷ đồng; Hoạt động phát triển khu công nghiệp 700-800 tỷ đồng (+36% YoY), các hoạt động khác trong đó có thoái vốn ngoài ngành dự kiến đem lại lợi nhuận hơn 900 tỷ đồng. Chi trả cổ tức 6% bằng tiền mặt.
GVR sẽ thực hiện tái cơ cấu hoạt động. Trong đó:
- Trồng và chế biến mủ cao su do lợi nhuận không cao, giá giảm nên chỉ duy trì quy mô hiện tại, không thực hiện mở rộng.
- Chế biến gỗ cao su do lợi nhuận khá tốt và có cơ hội phát triển, đặc biệt liên doanh với Hàn Quốc duy trì biên lợi nhuận trước thuế hơn 20%, nên sẽ đầu tư bổ sung, sáp nhập 1 số doanh nghiệp gỗ trong ngành. Tuy nhiên, chế biến gỗ MDF không mở rộng do cung vượt quá cầu, nguồn cung hiện tại 2 triệu m3 nhưng nhu cầu trong nước chỉ đạt 1,2 triệu m3.
- Sản phẩm công nghiệp cao su, lợi nhuận không cao, cạnh tranh lớn nên chỉ duy trì.
- Khu công nghiệp: lợi nhuận cao, tiềm năng và lợi thế nên đẩy mạnh đầu tư trong giai đoạn 2020-2025.
- Thoái vốn ngoài ngành.
Thông tin nổi bật tại Đại hội cổ đông
Vẫn tiếp tục sản xuất cao su trong bối cảnh giá bán giảm. Giá thành sản xuất cao su của tập đoàn ở mức 31 triệu/ tấn. Trong bối cảnh giá cao su tiếp tục giảm do nhu cầu sụt giảm Covid, tập đoàn cho rằng vẫn sẽ tiếp tục sản xuất. Đồng thời, ảnh hưởng của bệnh rụng lá nên Indonesia và Thái Lan có thể giảm sản lượng, cao su Việt Nam không bị mắc bệnh, do đó nếu giá cao su phục hồi sẽ ảnh hưởng tích cực đến tiêu thụ cao su tại Việt Nam.
Không tiếp tục mở rộng sản xuất gỗ MDF. Hiện tại chưa áp dụng thuế chống bán phá giá mặt hàng gỗ MDF, do đó, cạnh tranh trong ngành khá gay gắt với các sản phẩm nhập khẩu từ Malaysia, Thái Lan và Trung Quốc. Theo thông tin từ GVR, nguồn cung gỗ MDF đang vượt 2 triệu m3/ năm, nhu cầu chỉ đạt 1,2 triệu m3/ năm. Do đó, công ty không thực hiện đầu tư mở rộng sản xuất gỗ MDF.
Ghi nhận đền bù đất sân bay Long Thành. Với đơn giá đền bù 600 triệu đồng/ha, GVR hiện có hơn 2.000 ha đất trên cây cao su sẽ được nhận đền bù. Dự kiến trong năm 2020, ghi nhận 1.100 tỷ đồng tiền đền bù. Do đó, kế hoạch LNTT tại công ty cao su Đồng Nai (đơn vị có đất đền bù cho dự án sân bay Long Thành) vào khoảng 1.400 tỷ đồng. Dự kiến đến T11/2020, GVR sẽ bàn giao đất cho nhà nước.
Mở rộng, phát triển khu công nghiệp mới trên đất cao su. Hiện tại tập đoàn đang quản lý 12 KCN với tổng diện tích khai thác đạt 4.438 ha, với diện tích lấp đầy lên đến 90%. Trong năm 2020, các công ty con tập đoàn hoàn thành thủ tục và tiến hành đầu tư tại KCN Nam Tân Uyên 3 và KCN Rạch Bắp mở rộng. Đồng thời, đối với các KCN MH3 mở rộng, Nam Bắc Đồng Phú, Dầu Giây đang làm thủ tục mở rộng.
Kế hoạch phát triển khu công nghiệp trong giai đoạn 2021 – 2025, tổng diện tích đất khu công nghiệp tăng thêm từ 10.000-15.000 ha (tăng 125% – 237% so với diện tích hiện tại) được chuyển đổi từ đất trồng cây cao su. Dự kiến diện tích thuê mỗi năm sau 600-1.000 ha trong giai đoạn 2021-2025.
Thoái vốn tại các công ty con, công ty liên kết. Năm 2020, thực hiện thoái vốn tại SIP, đang hoàn thiện thẩm định giá, sau khi có chứng thư thẩm định giá. T7/2020 sẽ thực hiện đấu giá SIP (GVR hiện sở hữu 13,53%). Đồng thời, Tập đoàn sẽ tiếp tục thoái vốn tại công ty tư vấn đầu tư, cơ khí cao su, thủy lợi 4. Đồng Nai, Phú Riềng, Đồng Phú, Bình Long, Lộc Ninh. Trong năm 2020, tổng thoái vốn ngoài ngành là 2.061 tỷ đồng (trong đó giá trị tại 5 công ty thủy điện là 1.079 tỷ đồng).
Rủi ro. (1) Thoái vốn các công ty con không được thuận lợi; (2) Khó khăn trong việc chuyển đổi đất trồng cây cao su sang đất phát triển hạ tầng KCN; (3) Kinh nghiệm phát triển hạ tầng khu công nghiệp với quy mô lớn còn chưa nhiều.
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