SAB: Dấu hiệu phục hồi từ giữa Q2 được công bố tại ĐHCĐ năm 2020

Khuyến nghị: PHÙ HỢP THỊ TRƯỜNG

Giá hiện tại (tại ngày 09/07/2020): 205.000 Đồng/cp

Trong cuộc họp ĐHCĐ thường niên được tổ chức gần đây, Sabeco đã cập nhật cho cổ đông về quá trình tái cơ cấu cũng như tình hình hoạt động kinh doanh gần đây. Dưới đây là những thông tin chính từ cuộc họp:

ĐHCĐ đã phê duyệt kế hoạch năm 2020 như sau:

 2019AKế hoạch năm 2020% YoY
Doanh thu thuần (tỷ đồng)37.89923.800-37%
Lợi nhuận sau thuế (tỷ đồng)5.3703.258-39%
Cổ tức trên mệnh giá35%35% 

Nguồn: SAB, SSI Research

  • Kế hoạch năm 2020 này được đặt ra vào giữa tháng 4 được đánh giá là khá thận trọng, bời vì khi đó Việt Nam đang thực hiện chính sách giãn cách xã hội và chưa có một dấu hiệu về khả nặng kiểm soát được dịch bệnh. Với sự phục hồi như hiện tại, chúng tôi tin rằng SAB có thể đạt được hoặc thậm chí vượt kế hoạch đặt ra. Hậu dịch Covid-19, SAB đã thực hiện chương trình tích cực để thúc đẩy mức tiêu thụ bia tại nhà và đã có những động thái nhằm giải phóng hàng tồn kho tại các đại lý phân phối.
  • Các biện pháp cắt giảm chi phí vẫn là trụ cột quan trọng để tiết kiệm lợi nhuận. SAB cắt giảm chi phí nhân công bằng cách cắt giảm nhân viên thời vụ và thanh toán lương dựa trên năng suất làm việc. Dự án chuyển đổi chuỗi cung ứng và hệ thống quản lý kho đã mang lại một số lợi ích cho chi phí hoạt động như nguyên liệu đầu vào, chi phí đóng gói và cả chi phí thuê văn phòng trong tháng 4 và tháng 5.
  • Toàn ngành đã có sự phục hồi mạnh trong tháng 5 và tháng 6. Sản lượng bia sản xuất tăng 50%-60% so với mức trung bình 3 tháng trước, trong khi mức tiêu thụ tốt hơn vào mùa hè, cả hai đều được hỗ trợ bởi kinh tế đang phục hồi tương đối tốt do biện pháp ngăn chặn dịch bệnh triệt để của Chính phủ.

Ước tính lợi nhuận và quan điểm đầu tư

Hiện tại chúng tôi ước tính SAB sẽ đạt 27,96 nghìn tỷ đồng (-26% YoY) doanh thu thuần và đạt 4,25 nghìn tỷ đồng (-21% YoY) lợi nhuận sau thuế trong năm 2020, ước tính của chúng tôi lần lượt cao hơn 26% và 31% so với kế hoạch về doanh thu thuần và lợi nhuận ròng của công. Trong năm 2021, chúng tôi ước tính doanh thu thuần đạt 35,1 nghìn tỷ đồng (+25,6% YoY) và lợi nhuận ròng đạt 5,01 nghìn tỷ đồng (+17,9% YoY), tương đương với kết quả trước khi có dịch Covid-19. Tuy nhiên, chúng tôi đang xem xét lại ước tính bởi vì nhu cầu sau thời gian giãn cách xã hội đã phục hồi có thể cao hơn ước tính của chúng tôi. Khuyến nghị đối với cổ phiếu là PHÙ HỢP THỊ TRƯỜNG.

Hiện tại, chưa có thông tin chi tiết về kế hoạch thoái vốn nhà nước sau khi QĐ 908 được ban hành (sửa đổi việc thoái vốn nhà nước trong giai đoạn 2016-2020). Theo Quyết định, SAB phải chuyển cho SCIC muộn nhất vào ngày 31/8/2020, và sẽ được thoái vốn sau đó. Hiện tại vẫn chưa có thông tin cụ thể về việc SCIC sẽ bán cổ phần của SAB trong năm 2020 hay không.

Yếu tố hỗ trợ tăng đối với khuyến nghị: Nhu cầu đối với các sản phẩm bia Sabeco có thể tăng mạnh hơn ước tính của chúng tôi.

Rủi ro giảm đối với khuyến nghị: Sản lượng tiệu thụ thấp hơn ước tính của chúng tôi; giá nguyên liệu tăng.

Nguồn SSI, Chưng+

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