Support & Resistance (Hỗ trợ và Kháng cự)

Support and Resistance

Support và resistance đại diện quan trọng cho mối quan hệ giữa cung và cầu. Trên thị trường tài chính, giá cả phụ thuộc vào sự tăng giảm của cung và cầu. Cung tăng đồng nghĩa với xu hướng giảm, kì vọng giá giảm và việc bán. Cầu tăng đồng nghĩa với xu hướng tăng , kì vọng giá tăng và việc mua. Những từ này được dùng với ý nghĩa như nhau. Khi nhu cầu tăng giá sẽ tăng còn khi cung tăng thì giá sẽ giảm. Khi cung và cầu đạt mức cân bằng thì giá sẽ ổn định.

Support (Hỗ trợ) là gì?

Support là mức giá mà tại đó phần lớn nhà đầu tư cho rằng nhu cầu đủ nhiều để giá không giảm nữa. Khi giá giảm đến mức support người mua sẽ có khuynh hướng mua tiếp và người bán sẽ hạn chế bán ra, hiện tuợng cầu vượt quá cung xuất hiện và sẽ ngăn giá giảm xuống dưới mức support.

Mức support bị phá vỡ dự báo người bán đang mất hy vọng và họ sẵn sàng bán với giá thấp hơn vùng giá hỗ trợ. Thêm vào đó, phần lớn người mua sẽ không mua tại vùng hỗ trợ đó cho đến khi có giá hấp dẫn hơn nữa. Khi mức hỗ trợ bị phá vỡ, 1 mức hỗ trợ khác thấp hơn sẽ được thiết lập.

Resistance (Kháng cự) là gì?

Resistance là mức giá mà tại đó phần lớn nhà đầu tư cho rằng việc bán ra đủ nhiều để giữ giá không tăng tiếp trong 1 khoảng thời gian nhất định. Hiểu đơn giản, tại vùng kháng cự khả năng cao giá chuyển hướng từ tăng thành giảm.

Việc mức resistance bị phá vỡ cho thấy người mua chủ động và sẵn sàng trả giá cao hơn nhiều so với người bán tại vùng kháng cự, khi đó mức resistance mới cao hơn sẽ được thiết lập.

Support = Resistance

Một điều cơ bản của kỹ năng phân tích là mức Support có thể chuyển thành mức Resistance. Khi giá giảm dưới mức support thì mức support ấy có thể trở thành mức resistance. Mức support bị phá vỡ báo hiệu cung vượt qua cầu. Do đó, nếu giá quay trở lại mức này thì cung có thể sẽ tăng.

Ngược lại mức resistance cũng có thể sẽ chuyển thành mức support. Khi giá vượt qua mức resistance, có thể sẽ xuất hiện sự thay đổi của cung và cầu. Việc mức resistance bị phá vỡ chứng tỏ cầu đã vượt quá cung. Nếy giá quay trở lại mức này, có thể cầu sẽ tăng và mức support có thể được xác định.

Mức Support and Resistance được thiết lập bằng cách:

  • Kẻ vuông góc đỉnh hoặc đáy sang phải đồ thị để tìm ra được vùng hỗ trợ hoặc kháng cự
  • Nối đỉnh hoặc đáy với nhau.
  • Hỗ trợ hoặc kháng cự là số tròn, chẵn ví dụ: 10.000 VNĐ/CP, 12.000 VNĐ/CP…

Biểu đồ trên biểu diễn phạm vi giao dịch từ tháng 1-1999 đến tháng 3-2000. Support được tạo nên bởi mức thấp tháng 10 gần mức 33 vào tháng 12, giá cổ phiếu quay lại mức support vào khoảng 33-35 và mức thấp là gần 34. Cuối cùng vào tháng 2 giá cổ phiếu 1 lần nữa quay lại mức support và mức thấp là gần 33.

Sau mỗi lần cham hỗ trợ giá cổ phiếu phục hồi về mức kháng cự. Mức resistance ban đầu được tạo nên từ mức support bị phá vỡ hồi tháng 9 là vùng giá 42. Sau khi mức support bị phá vỡ thì nó trở thành mức resistance. Từ mức thấp của tháng 10, giá cổ phiếu tăng đến mức resistance mới khoảng gần 42.5. Giá cổ phiếu nhiều lần chạm kháng cự mà không vượt qua. Tuy nhiên, có thể sẽ có 1 thời điểm nào đó kháng cự có 42 bị phá vỡ.

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