Cập nhật ngành Bất động sản Q2/2020: Câu chuyện về hai thành phố

 

 

  • Theo số liệu từ CBRE, tổng cung tại thị trường Hà Nội trong quý 2 vẫn giảm so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái xuống còn 5.569 căn (-39% YoY). Tuy nhiên, kết quả này tốt hơn nhiều so với thị trường trong Q1, tăng 240% QoQ, đến từ 11 dự án mới được phân bố đều ở các quận xung quanh thành phố. Số lượng căn đã bán trong quý 2 đạt 5.100 căn (-27% YoY), mức hồi phục khá khả quan từ  đáy quý trước, tăng 137% QoQ.
  • Trong một diễn biến khác, tổng nguồn cung mới trong quý 2/2020 tại thị trường TP.HCM chỉ đạt 1.644 căn, con số thấp nhất trong 5 năm trở lại đâyGiá bán tăng cao làm giảm tỷ lệ hấp thụ của thị trường xuống rõ rệt.
  • Hiện tại, giá bán trung bình cho nhà chung cư và các bất động sản khác tại TP.HCM hiện cao hơn 15-30% so với Hà Nội và chúng tôi ước tính mức chênh lệch này vẫn tiếp tục được duy trì trong thời gian tới.

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​1. Thị trường miền Bắc: Hà nội dẫn đầu thị trường toàn quốc trong quý 2 với đà hồi phục mạnh mẽ.

Số dự án mở bán trong quý 2 tăng gần gấp ba lần so với mức thấp trong quý trước: Thị trường Hà Nội có những tín hiệu tốt hơn đáng kể so với miền Nam, với nguồn cung ổn định của một loạt các bất động sản mới xây dựng. Theo CBRE, tổng nguồn cung trong quý 2 vẫn giảm so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, xuống còn 5.569 căn (-39% YoY). Tuy nhiên, kết quả này tốt hơn nhiều so với trong Q1, tăng 240% QoQ, đến  từ 11 dự án mới được phân bố đều ở các quận xung quanh thành phố. Hầu hết trong số đó là các dự án trung cấp, chiếm gần 90% tổng số dự án mới mở bán. Với nguồn cung phong phú, người mua có nhiều lựa chọn hơn so với thị trường TP.HCM. Giá bán trung bình tại Hà Nội gần như không thay đổi (+ 1% QoQ), duy trì mức giá trước dịch bệnh Covid19. Tổng nguồn cung vẫn có thể đạt 20.000 căn trong năm nay, giả định rằng điều kiện thị trường thuận lợi vẫn tiếp diễn.

Số lượng căn đã bán trong quý 2 đạt 5.100 căn (-27% YoY), hồi phục đáng kể từ mức đáy quý trước tăng 137% QoQ.

 

2. Thị trường miền Nam: Nguồn cung mới hạn chế cùng với tâm lý giao dịch thận trọng

Chúng tôi đã tham dự nhiều sự kiện bán hàng khác nhau và chứng kiến một lượng lớn người mua/ nhà đầu tư quay trở lại sau khi thời gian giãn cách xã hội kết thúc. Điều này cho thấy vẫn tồn tại nhu cầu/ mức độ quan tâm đối với bất động sản ở miền Nam, nhưng số liệu thống kê trong quý cho thấy còn nhiều khó khăn phía trước.

Theo CBRE, tổng nguồn cung mới trong quý 2 năm 2020 chỉ đạt 1.644 căn, con số thấp nhất trong 5 năm. Đã có 7 dự án mới mở bán, chủ yếu tập trung vào quận 2, 9, Thủ Đức và Nhà Bè. Phân khúc trung cấp chiếm 55%, trong khi phân khúc cap cấp 35% và phần còn lại dành cho phân khúc hạng sang. Với nguồn cung thấp như vậy, giá bán trung bình của tất cả các phân khúc tiếp tục tăng, cao hơn nhiều so với thị trường Hà Nội.

  • Phân khúc hạng sang: 6.300 USD/m2 (+5% YoY)
  • Phân khúc cao cấp: 2.564 USD/m2 (+4% YoY)
  • Phân khúc trung cấp: 1.479 USD/m2 (+10% YoY)

Hiện tại, giá bán trung bình cho nhà chung cư và các bất động sản khác tại TP.HCM hiện cao hơn 15-30% so với Hà Nội và chúng tôi ước tính mức chênh lệch này vẫn sẽ được duy trì trong thời gian sắp tới. Trong khi đó, các chủ đầu tư đã triển khai các chiến lược như quảng cáo, hợp tác với các sàn môi giới và công bố thêm các chương trình quảng cáo cho người mua nhà nhằm kích cầu. Các chương trình khuyến mãi là trọng tâm của chủ đầu tư để thu hút người mua nhà, nhưng điều này thường không bao gồm trong giá chiết khấu trên thị trường sơ cấp.

Nguyên nhân cho kết quả thị trường kém: Dựa trên các số liệu thống kê về cung và cầu của phân khúc nhà chung cư trong năm gần đây, chúng tôi đã thực hiện một cuộc khảo sát và tham gia thảo luận với cả các công ty môi giới và chủ đầu tư địa phương để tìm ra lý do:

  • Về phía cầu: Cả người mua để ở và đầu cơ đều đang theo dõi thị trường, nhưng không vội vã tham gia vào các giao dịch mua bán chung cư mới. Điều này bắt nguồn từ thực tế là mức giá hiện tại cho phân khúc trung cấp đã tăng lên khoảng giá mới, làm giảm số lượng người mua nhà. Đặc biệt là trong bối cảnh sau Covid19. Giá cho thuê cũng giảm đáng kể sau Covid19, khiến một số hộ gia đình trì hoãn quyết định mua nhà mới, và thay vào đó chọn tiếp tục thuê, trong khi các nhà đầu tư mua để cho thuê nhận thấy lợi suất cho thuê kém hấp dẫn hơn. Do những người mua nhà tiềm năng này rời thị trường, hoặc chọn không tham gia vào thị trường, điều này đã tác động đến thị trường thứ cấp. Người bán nhà nhận thấy thanh khoản giảm, và lợi nhuận ròng từ các giao dịch mua bán đã giảm đáng kể, điều này cũng dẫn số lượng nhà đầu cơ bị ảnh hưởng.
  • Về phía cung: Tương tự như người mua nhà, các chủ đầu tư trong thị trường sơ cấp cũng rất thận trọng. So với các quý trước, số lượng căn tung ra thị trường giảm. Do đó, các chủ đầu tư đang cố gắng duy trì phạm vi giá cao trong năm 2018-2019 bằng cách chủ động hạ nguồn cung mới cho thị trường, nhằm kiểm soát nhu cầu và tăng áp lực mua của các căn hiện có trên thị trường. Như đã đề cập ở trên, điều này cũng khiến thị trường thứ cấp biến động, do nguồn cung căn hộ mới mở bán giảm dẫn đến nhiều người mua nhà tại thị trường thứ cấp từ các nhà đầu tư thứ cấp khác. Duy trì tâm lý thị trường thứ cấp là việc quan trọng đối với chủ đầu tư, vì đây là một trong những yếu tố chính mà người mua nhà cân nhắc trước khi quyết định mua từ thị trường sơ cấp.
  • Tác động của chính quyền địa phương: Mặc dù năm nay là năm đầu có hiệu lực của Nghị định 25/ND-CP mới ban hành, cùng với nhiều cuộc họp giữ chủ đầu tư và chính quyền địa phương để giải quyết các vấn đề nổi cộm trên thị trường bất động sản, tiến độ cải thiện từ Q1 đến nay còn chậm. Một số chủ đầu tư vẫn chưa nhận được câu trả lời chính thức về việc có thể tiếp tục thực hiện dự án hay bị đình chỉ, chẳng hạn như dự án Phước Kiển của Quốc Cường Gia Lai, đang có nguy cơ bị thu hồi. Trong khi đó, chính quyền địa phương tiếp tục quản lý nghiêm ngặt thị trường bằng cách giới hạn số lượng cấp phép cho các dự án mới và tăng cường các hoạt động kiểm tra giám sát đối với chủ đầu tư. Do đó, chúng tôi ước tính thị trường chung với nguồn cung hạn chế sẽ không đổi trong giai đoạn 2020-2021, gây ra nhiều khó khăn hơn cho người mua nhà để ở.
  • Tác động khác: Các căn hộ 2 phòng ngủ có diện tích nhỏ hơn hoặc bằng 80 m2 có tỷ lệ hấp thụ cao nhất. Ngoài ra, trên thị trường thứ cấp, một số nhà đầu cơ bắt đầu cắt lỗ, giảm 5-7% giá bán.  

 

 

Nguồn: SSI – Fundex

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