Ngành sữa: Lựa chọn tốt cho chiến lược phòng thủ

Triển vọng lợi nhuận 2020

Nhu cầu các sản phẩm sữa trong nước ít chịu ảnh hưởng bởi Covid-19, chỉ giảm -4% về giá trị so với mức giảm -7,3% trong tăng trưởng tiêu thụ hàng FMCG (nguồn: Nielsen) và 3,4% tăng trưởng doanh số bán lẻ trong 6T2020 (nguồn: TCTK).

Tiêu thụ sữa chiếm 12% tiêu thụ hàng FMCG tại Việt Nam trong 6T2020 (Nielsen), không thay đổi so với năm 2019.

Vinamilk (VNM) và Mộc Châu Milk (MCM) lần lượt đạt tăng trưởng doanh thu nội địa 2,5% / 9,7% trong 6T2020 vượt trội so với ngành và các công ty cùng ngành (Vinasoy: -6% YoY). Do đó, chúng tôi cho rằng Vinamilk đã giành thêm thị phần trong thời kỳ đại dịch.

Với giả định không có thêm đợt giãn cách xã hội trên toàn quốc trong nửa cuối năm, chúng tôi ước tính VNM sẽ đạt mức tăng trưởng 8% về doanh thu và 5,5% về lợi nhuận cho cả năm 2020, trong khi doanh thu và lợi nhuận của Vinasoy (mảng sữa đậu nành của QNS) ước tính giảm -1% và -9,2 % YoY trong năm.

Triển vọng lợi nhuận 2021

Mặc dù sữa là mặt hàng tiêu dùng thiết yếu, nhu cầu từ người tiêu dùng thu nhập thấp vẫn có thể bị ảnh hưởng do tác động tiêu cực từ đại dịch Covid-19. Theo Tổng cục Thống kê, thu nhập của người lao động giảm -5,1% YoY trong Q2/2020. Tuy nhiên, chúng tôi cho rằng tác động đến người lao động tự do/ vùng nông thôn sẽ nặng nề hơn.

Chúng tôi ước tính giá bán trung bình cho các SKU hiện tại sẽ không tăng trong năm 2021. Người tiêu dùng sẽ nhạy cảm hơn với giá trong giai đoạn 2020-2021. Quá trình cao cấp hóa (premiumization) có thể sẽ chậm lại

Giả định kịch bản cơ sở của chúng tôi: a) Covid-19 sẽ được kiểm soát vào giữa năm 2021; b) Không có thêm giãn cách xã hội trên toàn quốc; và c) Tiêu thụ sữa vẫn ổn định với tăng trưởng thấp một con số. VNM có thể giành được thêm thị phần nhất trong điều kiện này nhờ vào sản phẩm đa dạng và hệ thống phân phối rộng khắp. Theo đó, chúng tôi dự báo tăng trưởng doanh thu 6% / 8% cho VNM và MCM tại thị trường trong nước, trong khi doanh thu thị trường nước ngoài ước tính ​​tăng 5% -7% từ mức thấp trong năm 2020. Do đó, chúng tôi ước tính VNM sẽ đạt tăng trưởng lợi nhuận ròng ổn định là 8,8% vào năm 2021.

Đối với Vinasoy, chúng tôi ước tính tăng trưởng doanh thu/ lợi nhuận 7% / 0,6% vào năm 2021.

Thay đổi cấu trúc ngành sau Covid-19

Hợp nhất ngành: Sau khi VNM mua lại MCM, Blue Point và VietCapital đã mua lại IDP. Trong khi đó, thương hiệu mới trong nước cũng đang phát triển nhanh, như Vitadairy.

Tỷ suất lợi nhuận có thể tiếp tục được hỗ trợ bởi giá sữa nguyên liệu hợp lý: USDA dự báo giá sữa sẽ giảm -8,5% YoY vào năm 2021 (USDA, tháng 7/2020). Rabobank ước tính ​​giá bột sữa nguyên kem và bột sữa tách kem tại Châu Úc sẽ tiếp tục giảm theo quý từ Q1/2020 đến Q3/2021, khiến giá sữa trung bình giảm 10% -11% YoY trong năm 2021 (Rabobank, Báo cáo ngành sữa toàn cầu Q2/2020)

Kênh hiện đại (MT) tiếp tục tăng trưởng vượt kênh truyền thống. Kênh hiện đại chỉ chiếm 10-15% doanh thu của các công ty sữa. Nhận thấy xu hướng này, các công ty F&B đã và đang tích cực tăng cường thâm nhập vào kênh MT – nhưng kênh này có thể có tỷ suất lợi nhuận thấp hơn do chi phí bán hàng và chiết khấu cao. Sữa là một trong Top sản phẩm có lượng mua qua các nền tảng thương mại điện tử tăng trong thời kỳ đại dịch.

Mặc dù các thương hiệu trong nước thống lĩnh thị trường, cạnh tranh từ các thương hiệu nước ngoài vẫn hiện hữu. Hiệp định thương mại tự do EVFTA cũng sẽ loại bỏ các mức thuế 5% -20% đối với các sản phẩm sữa Châu Âu trong vòng 3-5 năm tới.

Xuất khẩu sẽ trở thành nên quan trọng hơn để thúc đẩy tăng trưởng, đặc biệt là sang thị trường Trung Quốc. Tất cả các nhà sản xuất sữa trong nước đã chính thức được xuất khẩu sang Trung Quốc, điều này có lợi cho các doanh nghiệp hàng đầu như Vinamilk, TH True Milk, Vinasoy, Mộc Châu Milk.

Khuyến nghị: VNM (Giá mục tiêu: 135.000 Đồng/cp, Khả quan)

                        QNS (Giá mục tiêu: 39.250 Đồng/cp, Khả quan)

Nguồn: SSI Reseach – Fundex

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