Báo cáo nhận định thị trường phái sinh phiên giao dịch ngày 27/03

Báo cáo nhận định thị trường phái sinh phiên giao dịch ngày 27/03.

 

Ngày đáo hạn

Số ngày tới hạn

KLGD (HĐ)

KL mở (OI)

Giá mở cửa

Giá cao nhất

Giá thấp nhất

Giá đóng cửa

+/-

Giá lý thuyết tham khảo

Chênh lệch

VN30

 

 

 

 

1,146.86

1,162.35

1,146.8

1,150.30

3.57

 

 

VN30F1804

4/19/2018

22

19,508

6,446

1,154.5

1,154.5

1,144.0

1,146.9

6.9

1,150.8

3.9

VN30F1805

5/17/2018

50

335

326

1,163.9

1,163.9

1,153.5

1,154.1

2.1

1,151.5

-2.6

VN30F1806

6/21/2018

85

120

829

1,170.0

1,170.0

1,160.0

1,160.1

0.1

1,152.4

-7.7

VN30F1809

9/20/2018

176

114

588

1,185.0

1,185.0

1,178.5

1,181.0

6.8

1,154.6

-26.4

Tổng cộng

 

 

20,077

8,189

Tổng GTGD

2,310.1

(tỷ đồng)

 

 

 

 

 

ĐÀ TĂNG YẾU DẦN VÀO CUỐI PHIÊN

VN-Index tăng điểm khá tốt ngay từ đầu phiên chạm ngưỡng 1.187 điểm dưới ảnh hưởng tích cực từ chứng khoán thế giới. Tuy nhiên áp lực gia tăng ở vùng giá cao đẩy các chỉ số giảm dần. Kết thúc phiên, VN-Index chỉ tăng nhẹ +0,51 điểm (+0,04%) lên 1.171,73 điểm, trong khi HNX-Index đóng cửa ở giá đỏ 133,29 điểm (-0,38; -0,29%). Căng thẳng giữa Mỹ và Trung Quốc cùng với nguy cơ về một cuộc chiến tranh thương mại toàn cầu đã có dấu hiệu tạm lắng dịu trong những ngày cuối tuần. Thị trường Việt Nam đã phản ứng trước chứng khoán Mỹ, nên ảnh hưởng tích cực không duy trì được lâu do sức ép gia tăng trở lại đặc biệt ở nhóm Ngân hàng, Chứng khoán và Dầu khí.

CKPS cũng có diễn biến tương tự,  đóng cửa tăng điểm ở cả 4 HĐ và có phần thận trọng hơn so với TTCK cơ sở khi biên độ biến động giá của các HĐTL thấp khoảng 10 điểm, thấp hơn so với mức hơn 15 điểm của VN30-Index. HĐ F1804 và F1809 đóng cửa tăng hơn 6 điểm. Tuy nhiên, giá F1804 vẫn thấp ở mức thấp hơn giá lý thuyết và khoảng cách giữa chỉ số cơ sở và giá các HĐ kỳ hạn ngắn được thu hẹp đáng kể

KLGD tăng nhẹ đạt 20.077 HĐ, tương đương 2.310 tỷ đồng. Ngược lại, khối lượng mở giảm còn 8.189 HĐ (-457 HĐ).

 

DỰ BÁO XU HƯỚNG VN30-INDEX

Chỉ báo ngắn hạn

Chỉ báo xu hướng và trung hạn

Stochastic

TIÊU CỰC

RSI

TRUNG TÍNH

Volume

TIÊU CỰC

ADX

TRUNG TÍNH

MFI

TÍCH CỰC

 

MACD

TÍCH CỰC

MA Ngắn hạn

TÍCH CỰC

MA Trung hạn

TÍCH CỰC

Trend Ngắn hạn

TÍCH CỰC

 

Trend Trung hạn

TÍCH CỰC (NẮM GIỮ)

 

Hỗ trợ ngắn hạn:

1134 & 1141

Kháng cự ngắn hạn:

1154-1159.37

 

Chỉ số VN30 tăng điểm đầu phiên khá manh kiểm lại mốc 1159.37 điểm  và áp lực bán tăng lên cuối phiên khiến chỉ số lùi xuống nhưng vẫn tăng 3.57 điểm. KLGD tiếp tục giảm so với phiên trước 13.41% và cây nến không mấy tích cực.  Nhiều khả năng áp lực bán sẽ gia tăng trở lại trong phiên giao dịch kế tiếp.

CHIẾN LƯỢC ĐẦU TƯ

Vị thế MUA ngắn hạn                              

Vị thế Mua: VN30 vận động trên mốc 1141 điểm

Đóng vị thế: Quanh 1154 – 1159 điểm hoặc đạt mức lợi nhuận kỳ vọng

Stoploss: VN30  bẻ gãy trở lại mốc 1141 điểm           

 

Vị thế BÁN ngắn hạn 

Vị thế bán: VN30  phá vỡ hỗ trợ 1141 điểm

Đóng vị thế: Quanh  1127-1134  điểm hoặc đạt mức lợi nhuận kỳ vọng

Stoploss: VN30 vận động trở lại lên trên 1141 điểm

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